Puzzled by Dalai Lama thought process

Read this in Bahrain Tribune Daily:

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“If my death comes when we are still in a refugee status then logically my reincarnation will come outside Tibet,” the Dalai Lama said in an interview restricted to three journalists.

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Why would he assume that? Would not a perfectly ordered universe that has operated reincarnation eternally be the best decider of where he would be reincarnated? Might not the universe think that the lesson to be taught is to have him "reincarnated" back in Tibet "again?"

Listen, I've admired him as a person and as someone with a good heart and principles, and have enjoyed reading his books. However, I'm not shy about criticizing someone who is supposed to be a model of the faith. It sounds like he does not trust in his own doctrine of reincarnation. He would reply that he's saying this because the Chinese would meddle and appoint their own. So what? If the Dalia Lama believes in his own karma and faith, would not the universe "reincarnate" the "real" him in Tibet regardless of who the Chinese appoint? This is the religion of Tibet Buddhism, not Refugee Buddhism, no? So would not the "universe" reincarnate the leader of "Tibetan" Buddhism in Tibet, as it "has" (according to their belief) throughout its history?

More example of reincarnation as false doctrine, leftover from when certain cultures in seeking God imposed morality through fear of retribution in "future lives."